Free Ebook , by Didier Sornette D. Sornette
Free Ebook , by Didier Sornette D. Sornette
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, by Didier Sornette D. Sornette
Free Ebook , by Didier Sornette D. Sornette
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Product details
File Size: 18293 KB
Print Length: 444 pages
Publisher: Princeton University Press; Revised ed. edition (March 21, 2017)
Publication Date: March 21, 2017
Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B01M34NBM2
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#242,435 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
The author discusses the application of non-linear modeling techniques on the financial market. Given the behavior of financial market is the result of the inter-working of countless investors, it's very surprising and interesting to see these modeling techniques actually produce some very good results. In particular, the author presents the logic behind the formation and the bursting of bubbles, and, more importantly, provides insight of what we can expect from the financial market in the long term.Please note this is a very technical book for the general public. You don't need a PhD to understand it, but you do need to be comfortable with data plots and discussions of equations. You also need more than a general understanding of statistics; concepts such as correlation, regression, and model fit should not be intimidating to you. Some background in Physics will also be helpful, especially if you already understand the equation of oscillatory motion.
Do not buy this as an e-book; a couple of Princeton e-books on mathematical subjects that I've bought had bad misprints in the equations. I read the paperback.Stock-market crashes generally take everyone by surprise--they feel like bolts from the blue. They're usually not. Sornette shows how the interplay of greed, fear, and imitation among investors and traders creates an accelerating rhythm of sudden rises alternating with increasingly brief pauses. This "mathematical signature" can begin months or years in advance, but its predictive value rises in the last year before the death of the bubble (which may be relatively calm, but usually is followed by a crash).Sornette presents the results of several predictions made using this technique. While his track record is not perfect, it is strongly better than what could be expected from chance. Although the math is advanced, the discussion and the graphs make the argument clear to the lay reader.What about the everyday investors who don’t have access to Sornette’s computational skills? The lesson is straightforward: as markets rise, and especially as they rise sharply, so does the danger of a crash. As they watch a sharp rise, investors should reduce their equity positions to capture gains made so far and limit the danger to their portfolios.But let's assume that you're not in the stock market and don't plan to be. The last chapter broadens the discussion to consider a wide range of problems confronting the world in the period from the year of publication (2002) to the potential "end of the growth era" around 2050. Many of the trends described have only become more pressing since 2002. This book is both important and fascinating--not just for investors but also for citizens of an uncertain world.
This is a fascinating book, both on finance and many other complex phenomena. I have now read it three times.It appears he has made a genuine advance in understanding financial bubbles and crashes.However reading the book does require that you are prepared to think. If you are after someone telling you what to buy or sell, this is not the book for you.Yes there is some math but you really can skip it without losing too much. The quotes that people have included in their reviews are minor asides that merely point the interested to further related material.Some others have commented that his predictions have not all worked out. This is all discussed at length in the book; in such a field predictions are not infallible. About 40% of market crashes are caused by external events and so are not predictable. However he seems to have the S&P500 worked out. Last years he predicted a choppy rally in 1Q2003, then from 2Q2003 a major fall ending in 1h2004. So far so good.
Why Stock Markets Crash by Didier Sornette is an interesting book. He is a geophysicist who specializes in predicting failures in complex systems.The book contains some rigorous mathematical proofs for a 'popular' book which means it probably won't be popular. But even if one merely glances the math, which again is mostly for proofs and for those with an analytical inclination, the overall text and thoughts and analysis are extremely thought provoking and insightful.Its really good. You should read it if you have a background in stats or finance and are interested in the theory of efficient markets and the occurence of 'secular' events.
I truly find this book to do an outstanding job. But judging from other critiques, perhaps they see the author's job at hand differently than I do.One point he posits is that collective behavior is a force in creating bubbles and possible crashes. He models this behavior by introducing power laws and then overlays a sinusoidal behavior; then applies this parametric analysis to numerous examples.As any scientific work, he starts with an hypothesis, applies examples for validity, and then makes predictions. Are his predictions 100% correct -- no (only 60% correct). But that does not invalidate his ideas. Perhaps it means that the theory is partially correct and needs tweeking; or perhaps it means going back to the drawing board. That is the beauty of science and the scientific approach -- there are no Hollywood endings.The only shortcoming for me is the lack of mathematical exposition. Possibly, though, this may be a saving grace, since the trees are visible and not buried in some forest of symbols.Personally, I am going to follow up on the ample references. The author may be on to something here.
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